Naveen's Addendum

I had the same problem as Mark with the concept of probability. I couldn't have expressed the limitation of probability better than he has done.

That said, it seems the real world is getting around that limitation of probability, which is characterising and dealing with real-world uncertainty. As I understand the limitation that he has expressed manifests in the concept of Net Present Value (NPV) which is extremely static in its usage of probability values. Real Options on the other hand is gaining ground as a more powerful way of tackling uncertainty in future investments and is already on the radar of law. For a succint primer of real options read The Real Power of Real Options. More in-depth usage of real options analysis is reserved once we tackle the basic idea of distributions and their relevance to us. I am still looking for a powerful and simple way that the idea of distributions can make sense to a Philosophy undergrad or my mommy. Do you know of any?